The files you found in the Black Hole indicate a plan by Renraku to manipulate the Novatech IPO. Specifically it is a plan for a second Nanosecond Buyout, destabilizing the IPO sufficiently to give sufficient power to Renraku to force a very favorable merger, and ending Novatech as we know it. Renraku appears to be heavily leveraging itself towards liquidity and marginal debt. Perhaps they are not as weak as the Woman in Blue suspects. That said this is a vulnerable position for them to be in.
The big trading houses all use very sophisticated VI’s to orchestrate massive-volume instantaneous market trading. As far as I can tell what you saw in there was itself some sort of mega VI designed to analyze the behaviors of the big traders, and generate the market conditions required to get each of them to do exactly what the VI wants them to do. So if a company is sensitive to a large volume of open put orders it would generate them in order to trigger that company to devalue that target stock.
If the big trading houses all become bearish about the IPO it will tank, forcing the syndicate to exercise the full value of the reverse greenshoe, and keeping prices low, giving them a poor long term prospect. Exactly the result I was expecting in fact, though not the method I would have guessed. Since Novatech has acquired a vast array of holdings they will either likely divest or merge.
Simply knowing this is valuable of course, we could buy put options at 2 nuyen a share, and make 3 nuyen each should this plan actually work. But we could do better. With the stolen code, and the right talent we could create our own trading VI, not as sophisticated, but it only needs to out-think one opponent, rather than 100.
I can’t meaningfully predict how much money could be made in such a way. I would guess many millions. If we do this right we will all have a seat at the table, any table, in the future.
I have my ears open on the talent front, I have a few ideas, but need to do some research before I present options.